Marshall's first rule for adherence and mastery: say, out loud, "Statistics apply to me." People resist base rates with subtle dodges — the optimist ("I won't get cancer"), the fatalist ("I'll probably get cancer"). Reality: if smoking carries a 24.4% lung-cancer risk, assume *you* carry ~24.4%. The stance is liberating, not fatalistic, for two reasons. First, it sets honest expectations: take up running and you'll get injured at the rate runners get injured — you are not the exception. Second, and this is the active half, once you accept the base rate "you can mitigate the risks and improve your statistical odds." You stop being shocked by normal outcomes and start engineering around them. The habit application: weekly reviews fall off for most people. Knowing the base rate means that when yours falls off, you don't whine or beat yourself up (it's normal) — you research and act to raise adherence, e.g., a sub-10-minute "mini-review" to reset. "Statistics apply to me. Bank on it, and plan around it." Cross-domain: health, habit design, investing risk, project planning. --- *Source: [[Book Inventory/Progression|Progression]] (Sebastian Marshall, 2016) — Upstream Effects #9 — Adherence and Mastery*